Fuel Policy in Focus: Government Weighs Subsidy Reforms Amid Public Speculation
A wave of public and political reaction has followed recent reports and rumors of a potential fuel price increase in Iran, creating a climate of anticipation. Economists, the public, and members of parliament are closely monitoring the situation as the government evaluates its next steps.
Conflicting Statements from Parliament and Government
The debate was ignited when Hamid Resaei, a member of parliament from Tehran, claimed that a cabinet resolution could raise the price of the 1,500-toman gasoline tier to approximately 5,500 tomans. This assertion was met with a swift response from the Ministry of Petroleum. An informed source within the ministry stated that no official plan for such a price hike had been communicated to them.
Echoing this position, Fatemeh Mohajerani, the government spokesperson, denied the existence of any definitive cabinet resolution. She emphasized that any potential decision would be made with a primary focus on protecting vulnerable social groups and would not alter the current fuel quota system.
Potential Scenarios for Price Reform
Despite official denials of an immediate increase, reports indicate that the government is actively examining several scenarios for a broader revision of the gasoline pricing structure. One proposed model involves a multi-tiered pricing system. This could include a government-subsidized rate of 3,000 to 4,000 tomans, a semi-subsidized rate of 6,000 to 7,000 tomans, and a free-market price of around 10,000 tomans. The stated objectives of this model are to control consumption, reduce smuggling, and achieve greater subsidy equity.
An alternative scenario under discussion is the “fuel-per-person” plan, which would allocate a monthly quota of approximately 30 liters of gasoline to each citizen.
All Eyes on the Upcoming Budget Bill
Simultaneously, the government is promoting the development of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) infrastructure and investment in electric vehicles as complementary measures to its energy sector reforms. However, many analysts consider a fuel price adjustment in the coming year to be likely. They believe the final outcome will be determined when the administration presents the national budget bill to the parliament, which will reveal the government’s official financial planning. For now, the public awaits official clarification and a definitive resolution on this sensitive economic issue.