Gold Price Forecast for November 2025: Can 18-Karat Gold Surpass Its Record High?
A Nine-Month Storm in the Gold Market
The domestic and international gold markets have experienced a period of unprecedented volatility over the past nine months, defying earlier predictions of a price ceiling. In February 2025, former Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati publicly stated that gold prices would not decline, a forecast that was met with significant skepticism at the time. At that point, 18-karat gold was priced at 5,411,700 Tomans per gram, with the global ounce at $2,741.38.
Contrary to the expectations of many economic actors, the market did not enter a downward trend. Instead, it embarked on what can only be described as a “nine-month storm” for gold. By early November 2025, the price of 18-karat gold had surged to 10,770,800 Tomans per gram, while the global ounce climbed to $4,112. This period saw new, historic records being set, with domestic gold peaking at an incredible 11,372,900 Tomans and the global ounce reaching a high of $4,356.47.
Breaking Records: A Sign of Systemic Shifts
The most significant development in the gold market during this period was the shattering of historical price records, signaling profound market dynamics and systemic economic factors at play. The domestic market proved highly sensitive to immediate inflationary expectations and currency rate fluctuations.
Globally, the record-breaking price of gold was driven by a confluence of factors, including persistent worldwide inflation, geopolitical tensions, a fluctuating US dollar, and sustained demand from central banks. Gold traditionally performs well during periods of economic and political uncertainty, as investors seek out safe-haven assets to protect their capital.
Analyzing the Surge: A Timeline of Volatility
The price trajectory from February to November 2025 was marked by distinct phases. From February to April, gold prices showed mild fluctuations, hovering between 5 and 6 million Tomans—a period of relative, albeit superficial, calm. However, from May through July, the market gained momentum, with gold breaking through the 8 and 9 million Toman barriers, propelled by a strengthening exchange rate.
The summer months brought the peak, as the global ounce soared and the dollar surged, allowing gold to establish a new historical record and settle comfortably within the 11 million Toman range. While the market entered a phase of fluctuation and mild correction in September and October, there are no clear indicators of a return to previous price levels.
The Global Outlook: Interest Rates and Geopolitics
Recent announcements of a ceasefire in Gaza have somewhat alleviated political and psychological pressures in global markets. This development is expected to reduce the immediate safe-haven demand for gold in the short term, slowing its rapid price ascent—a trend already observed in early November 2025.
However, international analysts caution that this calm is fragile. Ongoing conflicts and geopolitical maneuvers continue to inject uncertainty into the global landscape. A key factor remains the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. If real interest rates remain high, holding gold becomes more expensive for investors, potentially leading to a price correction. Conversely, if the Fed is compelled to cut rates due to recessionary fears, gold would likely regain its momentum, positioning itself for new record highs.
The inverse relationship with the US dollar also plays a crucial role; any sign of a weakening dollar index typically boosts gold prices. Furthermore, sustained physical gold purchases in major markets like China and India, coupled with continuous buying by central banks—particularly in Asian nations—continue to provide strong structural support for elevated price levels.
Final Analysis and Investment Perspective
While the price of global gold is expected to stabilize or experience minor adjustments in the short term due to reduced Middle Eastern tensions, strong underlying supports, including global inflation and central bank demand, will likely prevent any severe crash.
A frank assessment of the current situation suggests that a definitive halt to gold’s growth is improbable. The market’s performance over the last nine months demonstrates that gold, particularly as a long-term strategy, has served as a successful tool for preserving wealth against inflationary pressures. The significant price increases domestically and globally underscore a broader search for stability. Even if a ceasefire temporarily cools market fervor, as long as major economies grapple with conflict, recession risks, and uncertain policies, both ordinary citizens and retail investors will continue to view gold as a reliable safe haven.