Title: Market Analysis: Signs of Stabilization Emerge Amidst Stock Market Pressures
A Day of Contrasts on the TSE
Tehran’s stock market experienced a day of significant tension on Monday, opening under heavy selling pressure that placed numerous shares in sell queues. However, market observers noted a notable shift as the trading session progressed. A substantial portion of these sell queues was absorbed, and trading volume increased, a dynamic that persisted until the closing minutes and helped mitigate a steeper decline. The overall index ultimately settled with a loss of approximately 37,000 units, closing at a level of 3,114,000 units.
Liquidity Outflow Remains a Key Challenge
A primary factor influencing the market was the movement of capital. Individual investors withdrew their funds from fixed-income funds, leading to an exit of roughly 1,042 billion tomans from the equity market. The total value of retail trades reached about 12.7 trillion tomans, with a trading volume of approximately 36.5 billion shares. These figures indicate that, despite efforts to absorb the supply, the wave of capital outflow from retail investors continues to exert considerable pressure on the market’s performance.
Outlook for Tuesday’s Session
Monday’s developments clearly pointed to the dominance of sellers. While the absorption of sell queues mid-session demonstrated attempts by major market players to prevent sudden, sharp declines, the significant exit of retail capital and the persistence of high sell orders have empowered sellers.
When retail investors simultaneously exit both equities and fixed-income funds, it signals a clear trend towards caution and a preference for lower-risk assets. Given this climate, the market is expected to open on Tuesday in a predominantly negative space, though the intensity of the potential decline is forecast to be milder than Monday’s. This assessment is based on observed efforts to gather supply and the actions of major players to avert a sharp collapse, which may help prevent a more severe downturn.
A Fragile Balance
Nevertheless, market equilibrium remains fragile. A sustained and powerful positive signal, either from fundamental economic indicators or a return of stable retail investment, is needed to restore firm confidence. Until such developments occur, further selling in recently appreciated stock groups remains a distinct possibility.
Consequently, the forecast for Tuesday’s trading session is a market operating within a negative framework but with a more moderate decline. Volatility is expected to continue among large and high-demand shares until a clearer path emerges for either new liquidity injections or price stabilization.
Source: Tejarat News