Title: Market Analyst Forecasts Continued, Gradual Price Adjustments in Iran’s Auto Sector
Tehran – Recent developments in Iran’s automotive market, including fuel price adjustments and the progression of a third phase of imported vehicle offerings, have sparked discussions on future pricing trends. A leading industry expert has provided a crucial analysis, downplaying the immediate impact of gasoline prices while highlighting broader economic factors and policy directions as the primary drivers.
Gasoline Prices: A Limited Impact
Contrary to some expectations, the recent change in gasoline prices is not anticipated to significantly alter the automotive market’s trajectory. According to Masih Farzaneh, an automotive industry analyst, such adjustments primarily affect public transportation fares and logistical costs on a macro level.
“The change in gasoline prices cannot be effective on the car market,” Farzaneh stated. He emphasized that the market has been predominantly influenced by “international political developments” over the past two months. The expert corroborated analyses from other specialists, indicating that price increases are more closely tied to factors impacting supply-side costs.
Imported Vehicles: A Path of Restrictions
The ongoing third round of imported vehicle offerings has revealed challenges within the import process. Farzaneh pointed to the limited number of active import companies as a clear signal to the market, suggesting these firms are fully aware of existing conditions and their significant outstanding commitments.
The import pipeline, from order registration to currency allocation and final licensing, is described as slow and arduous. Farzaneh noted that no facilitation has been observed in order registration or vehicle delivery, with a similar situation prevailing in currency allocation.
“It seems policymakers are guiding vehicle imports towards more restrictions,” he explained. The analyst projected that, in the best-case scenario, imports using negotiated foreign exchange rates may be halted from the start of the next Iranian year (March 2025). Thereafter, imports would only be possible through the free market currency rate, contingent on applicants navigating a complex and multi-stage process.
Market Dynamics Reflect Economic Realities
An examination of market activity reveals a telling concentration of transactions in vehicles priced around 2 billion tomans. Farzaneh described this segment as the “live and active” part of the market, yet also a warning signal.
“This shows how much the economy of families and the financial state of the car market have become weak and frail,” he remarked. This price bracket includes a mix of domestic, imported, and used Chinese vehicles, with only a limited number of new domestic models.
The subsequent market tier consists of new imported vehicles, typically priced up to 7 or 8 billion tomans. Meanwhile, the share of higher-priced, luxury vehicles is substantially smaller, with cars priced above 10 billion tomans representing a negligible market share and reporting very few daily transactions.
In conclusion, Farzaneh indicated that these conditions point to a market moving towards limited activity and lower liquidity, with the bulk of transactions concentrated in lower price segments, reflecting the prevailing economic climate.