Title: Political Signals Drive Dollar Fluctuations: Market Outlook for August 21, 2024
Dollar Reacts to Diplomatic Developments
The free market dollar opened Monday with minor fluctuations but surged mid-session following political remarks from Iranian foreign ministry officials, briefly entering the 93,000-toman range. Traders attributed the spike to heightened demand driven by geopolitical signals.
After a subdued start in the 91,000-toman range, the dollar climbed sharply by 1,500 tomans, peaking near 92,000 tomans before settling at 93,350 tomans by the close. Market analysts noted that initial optimism over Iran’s readiness for continued talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and European negotiators had stabilized prices, but firmer diplomatic rhetoric—including warnings about trigger mechanisms and enrichment policies—shifted sentiment, reigniting bullish trading.
Short-Term Forecast: Stability or Further Gains?
Economic experts suggest that with psychological resistance levels breached and late-day surges, short-term expectations lean toward stabilization or incremental increases. If no de-escalatory political news emerges, the dollar could test 94,000 tomans on Tuesday.
However, positive developments—particularly regarding negotiations with the U.S. or IAEA—could reverse the trend, pulling prices back to the 92,000-toman range. Heavy end-of-day buying activity indicates the likelier scenario is sustained levels or moderate growth in the coming days.
Regional Currencies Follow Suit
The UAE dirham rose to 25,250 tomans (+550 tomans), while the British pound and euro closed at 125,700 and 108,800 tomans, respectively. Tether (USDT) traded at 91,731 tomans, reflecting an 800-toman increase.
In exchange centers, the dollar transfer rate stood at 69,901 tomans, with physical notes trading at 71,998 tomans.
Source: Adapted from economic reports
