Rewritten Title:
UNCTAD Reports Global Trade Growth Amid Economic Uncertainties
Global Trade Sees $300 Billion Surge Despite Economic Headwinds
Despite signs of slowing growth, global trade expanded by approximately $300 billion in the first half of this year, according to a new report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). However, the outlook remains uncertain due to persistent policy instability, geopolitical tensions, and weakening global economic growth in the second half of 2024.
Mixed Growth Patterns in Global Trade
UNCTAD’s latest report indicates that global trade grew by 1.5% in the first quarter of 2024, with an expected acceleration to 2% in the second quarter. While rising prices contributed to higher overall trade values, trade volumes saw only a modest 1% increase. Commodity prices edged upward in Q1, a trend that continued into Q2.
Services Trade Outperforms Goods
Trade in services remained a key driver of growth, surging by 9% over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, goods trade among major economies followed a fluctuating trend in early 2024, with developed economies overtaking developing nations—a reversal of recent patterns.
Trade Imbalances and Rising Tensions
The report attributes this shift to a 14% rise in U.S. imports and a 6% increase in exports from the European Union. However, the U.S. has also seen a widening trade deficit, exacerbating global trade imbalances.
UNCTAD also warned of growing risks from trade fragmentation, citing recent U.S. tariffs—including a baseline 10% levy and additional duties on steel and aluminum. The report cautioned that further unilateral measures could escalate trade tensions, threatening global economic stability.
As uncertainties persist, the future of international trade remains clouded by geopolitical and economic challenges.
