Rewritten Title:
Global Trade Grows by $300 Billion in First Half of 2024 Amid Economic Uncertainties
Global Trade Sees Steady Growth but Faces Mounting Risks
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that global trade expanded by approximately $300 billion in the first half of 2024, despite emerging signs of slowing growth.
Mixed Performance Amid Geopolitical Tensions
According to UNCTAD’s latest report, global trade grew by 1.5% in the first quarter of 2024, with an expected acceleration to 2% in the second quarter. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to persistent policy instability, geopolitical tensions, and weakening global economic growth.
Price Increases Drive Trade Value, Volumes Lag
Rising commodity prices contributed significantly to the overall increase in trade value, though trade volumes saw only a modest 1% rise. Prices of traded goods edged higher in Q1 and continued this trend into Q2.
Services Trade Outperforms Goods
Trade in services remained a key growth driver, surging by 9% over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, merchandise trade among major economies fluctuated, with developed nations overtaking developing economies—a reversal of recent trends.
Shifts in Major Economies
The U.S. recorded a 14% rise in imports, while the European Union saw a 6% increase in exports. However, the U.S. also experienced a widening trade deficit, exacerbating global trade imbalances.
Rising Trade Disruption Risks
UNCTAD warned of growing risks from trade fragmentation, citing recent U.S. tariffs—including a 10% base rate and additional duties on steel and aluminum. The report cautioned that further unilateral measures could escalate trade tensions.
While global trade shows resilience, mounting challenges threaten to undermine stability in the second half of 2024.
