Rewritten Title: Economic Stability Hinges on Oil Exports and Geopolitical Calm, Experts Warn for New Year
Article:
A leading economic researcher has issued a measured forecast for the upcoming Persian year, warning that while the intensity of recent inflation may subside, high price levels are set to persist, with the nation’s economic stability closely tied to oil export revenues and the avoidance of external political tensions.
A Persistent Inflationary Climate
Hossein Doroudian, the researcher cited in the report, confirmed that the recent surge in inflation, which saw monthly rates exceed five percent in the Iranian month of Mehr, was primarily driven by the behavior of the foreign exchange rate. He projected that the annual inflation rate will stabilize at a ceiling of around 40 percent for the current year.
“Prices overall have a consistently increasing trend because inflation in the country is positive,” Doroudian stated. He elaborated that the significant jump witnessed recently equates to an annualized rate of over 60 percent, a situation he links to broader economic disruptions with political dimensions.
Geopolitical Factors and Economic Policy
Doroudian contextualized the recent economic pressures, suggesting they fall within the expected consequences and psychological impact of recent regional events. He indicated that policy orientations have been adjusted in response to these external factors.
The analysis also downplayed the inflationary impact of recent increases in banking facilities and loans, such as marriage loans, noting that credit restrictions imposed by banks had a relatively minor effect on the inflation rate. The expert suggested that in the current economic climate, the priority often shifts towards fundamental economic resilience.
The Path Forward: Management Over Elimination
Looking ahead to the final months of the year and the New Year period, the expert’s forecast hinges on continuity. “If the country’s oil export process continues in its current manner, the pressure from the foreign exchange side that existed in recent months will likely ease,” Doroudian said.
He predicted that the monthly inflation rate in the coming months will be lower than in Mehr. However, he emphasized that the overall inflation level will remain above 40 percent, marking a significant increase over the previous year. “High inflation will continue, but not with the intensity of the last two months,” he clarified.
A key takeaway from the analysis is a pragmatic shift in policy recommendation. Given the current economic conditions, the researcher advocates for a strategy focused on managing the effects and repercussions of inflation rather than attempting to seriously reduce it in the short term. The proposed approach is one of developing a capacity to coexist with a high inflation environment.
A Cautious Outlook with a Caveat
In his final assessment, Doroudian projected that the monthly inflation rate for the remainder of the year will fluctuate between three and four percent, resulting in an annual rate of approximately 40 percent. He concluded that this ceiling could be maintained, provided there is no change in the oil sales situation. The expert did, however, issue a final caveat, noting that unpredictable political and social events could completely disrupt this fragile equilibrium.