Rewritten Title: Fragile States: The Critical Hurdle to Global Poverty Eradication by 2030
Article:
A new World Bank analysis places a critical spotlight on the world’s most vulnerable economies, identifying them as the central challenge to achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, particularly the target of eradicating extreme poverty by 2030.
The Concentration of Global Challenges
Thirty-nine emerging and developing economies are currently classified as existing in a “Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situation” (FCS). While these nations are home to just one-eighth of the global population—approximately one billion people—they shoulder a disproportionate share of the world’s poverty and food insecurity. They are characterized by a complex web of entrenched crises, including institutional weakness, fragile governance, recurring armed conflict, heavy reliance on commodity exports, and high exposure to natural disasters and climate change.
Crucially, these are not temporary conditions. Three-quarters of these nations have remained in the FCS category for over a decade, with some experiencing this instability for more than fifteen consecutive years.
A Disproportionate Share of Suffering
The statistics reveal a stark disparity. Although FCS nations contain only 15% of the world’s population, they are home to nearly half of all people living in extreme poverty. Furthermore, close to 200 million of the world’s most severely food-insecure individuals reside within their borders. This intense concentration of deprivation means that without significant progress in these countries, the global goal of ending poverty by 2030 is likely unattainable.
Chronic Economic Weakness and Instability
The economic performance of FCS countries consistently lags behind other emerging markets. Their per capita GDP growth has historically been slower and is now, on average, negative. This growth is also highly volatile. A heavy reliance on raw commodities, weak financial capacity, and public deficits mean that any external or internal shock—from fluctuating oil prices to a drought—has an outsized impact on their economies.
The COVID-19 pandemic delivered a severe blow, causing FCS economies to shrink three times more than their peers in 2020. Their recovery has been painfully slow, hampered by chronically low investment as both domestic and foreign capital flees instability.
The Devastating Impact of Conflict
A defining feature of FCS nations is the prevalence and intensity of armed conflict. The number and severity of conflicts have tripled since the early 2000s, with 61 active state-based conflicts recorded in 2024. These conflicts inflict massive economic damage; high-intensity fighting typically results in a 20% loss in per capita output compared to pre-conflict projections five years later. Industry and infrastructure are hardest hit, crippling long-term productive capacity.
Pathways Forward and International Role
Despite the bleak outlook, opportunities exist. FCS nations often have young, growing populations that could become a powerful demographic dividend if jobs can be created. Many are also rich in natural resources, including minerals critical for the global transition to clean energy.
The World Bank report outlines key policy priorities:
- Conflict prevention through early warning systems and inclusive governance.
- Sustaining basic services like healthcare and utilities even during conflict to reduce rebuilding costs.
- Empowering the private sector to create jobs, particularly for youth and women.
- Continued investment in human capital and infrastructure.
Ultimately, sustained and coordinated international support is deemed essential. This includes concessional financing, debt relief, technical assistance, and better coordination among global institutions. The development of these fragile states is not just a regional concern but a global imperative, as achieving worldwide sustainable development goals is inextricably linked to their progress.
