Iran’s Meteorological Authority Releases Detailed Six-Week National Forecast
Tehran – The Institute of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences has issued its latest comprehensive six-week weather outlook, providing a detailed probabilistic forecast for precipitation and temperature patterns across the country from mid-September through late October.
Week-by-Week Breakdown
Week One (Mid to Late September):
The forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for the northern provinces. Accumulated precipitation, with a 50-75% probability, is estimated to reach between 50 to 100 millimeters in parts of Gilan and Mazandaran provinces. Isolated, scattered showers are also probable in limited parts of the southeast. The rest of the country is expected to see either no significant rainfall or amounts typical for the season.
Temperatures for the first week are predicted to be 1 to 3 degrees Celsius below normal in the northern third of Iran. In contrast, the Lut Desert region and adjacent areas of the southern Zagros will experience temperatures 1 to 3 degrees above normal. Other regions will see seasonal norms.
Week Two (Late September to Early October):
Precipitation is expected to be within normal ranges for the Caspian coastal provinces, areas from Zanjan to the northwest, the southern slopes of the central Alborz Mountains, and the northern strip of the northeast. Seasonal monsoon rains are anticipated in limited parts of the southeast, while other areas will remain dry.
Temperatures in the second week will be near normal in the southeast and along the coasts of the Persian Gulf. For the rest of the nation, temperatures are forecast to be 1 to 3 degrees below normal.
Weeks Three to Six (October into Early November):
The extended outlook predicts normal rainfall for the Caspian coastal provinces. However, for other northern regions, precipitation is expected to be below normal during weeks three and four. The final week of October is forecast to bring normal rainfall to the northern strip and western provinces.
For the sixth week (early November), normal precipitation is estimated for the Caspian coastal areas and the northeastern northern strip, with below-normal levels expected elsewhere. Temperature patterns from the third through the sixth week are projected to fluctuate within the normal range for this time of year.
The detailed forecast underscores the ongoing work of Iran’s meteorological services to provide accurate, long-range data for agricultural planning, water resource management, and public awareness.