Europe Triggers ‘Snapback’ Mechanism: A New Phase in Nuclear Diplomacy with Iran
Introduction: A Shifting Political Landscape
Two months after the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel, the immediate shadow of conflict has surprisingly receded. However, the political arena remains highly charged. Contrary to the expectations of some, the military outcomes did not translate into fresh political capital for the Israeli leadership; rather, they were overshadowed by the ongoing war in Gaza. The focus has now pivoted to a significant diplomatic development in Europe that is set to redefine nuclear negotiations.
European Powers Activate the ‘Snapback’ Clause
In a major move this past Thursday, the European Union, along with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—the European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA)—announced their intention to reinstate sanctions against Iran through the agreement’s ‘snapback’ mechanism. This decision is a European response to Iran’s cessation of negotiations with the previous U.S. administration for a new agreement and its refusal to fully cooperate with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection protocols.
This process will have significant economic consequences for Iran, which has stated it may reconsider its adherence to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in response.
A Complex Web of Global Relations
Despite this pressure, analysts note that Iran is not facing complete international isolation. Key global players, including Russia and China, continue to engage with Tehran, particularly on energy purchases. Furthermore, the current U.S. administration, preoccupied with managing domestic inflation, is perceived to have little appetite for actions that could further destabilize global energy markets and drive up prices.
Eli Levitt, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment and Harvard’s Belfer Center, explained the mechanics of the situation to Haaretz: “The mechanism designed in 2015 was for the suspension of sanctions, preserving the possibility of their return… If the snapback is triggered, it comes into effect within a month. This one-month period leaves room for negotiations.”
Core Issues and Diplomatic Manoeuvring
A central European demand, according to Levitt, concerns Iran’s stockpile of 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. Western assessments suggest this material is stored in tunnels at a facility in Isfahan, a site whose entrances were reportedly damaged in past airstrikes. A key proposal on the table involves granting the IAEA access to these materials in exchange for a delay in the implementation of sanctions.
“Beyond access to these materials,” Levitt continues, “there is another major issue: whether Iran will be permitted to continue uranium enrichment, and at what level.”
While the situation appears calm for now, analysts are considering a scenario where Iran, feeling increasingly pressured by isolation, could decide to dramatically accelerate its nuclear program.
Regional Tensions and the Specter of Conflict
Concurrently, Israel continues its efforts to counter Iranian-aligned networks across the region, including in Syria. Although Damascus has reportedly distanced itself from Tehran under its new leadership, vast stockpiles of weapons remain in the country.
Meanwhile, missile attacks from Yemen are viewed by many Israelis as a persistent nuisance. However, much like before the recent exchange with Iran, intercepting Houthi missiles depletes Israel’s limited stock of expensive defensive munitions. The Houthis have now begun employing cluster munitions in their missiles, making them more difficult to intercept. Repeated targeting of Ben Gurion Airport poses a significant threat; a single successful strike, or even shrapnel on a runway, could once again halt international flights to Israel—a sector that has yet to fully recover from the previous conflict.
As Haaretz concludes, this combination of diplomatic pressure and ongoing low-level military engagements could increase the probability of a renewed conflict, a possibility that had seemed to fade from memory over the past two months. The activation of the snapback mechanism marks the beginning of a delicate and critical new chapter in diplomacy.