Title: A Critical Juncture for Iran’s Housing Market: Expert Analysis on Prices and a Potential Buying Window
Tehran’s Real Estate at a Standstill
While official statistics on Tehran’s average housing prices are not currently available, unofficial data indicates that asking prices have reached approximately 105 million Tomans per square meter, reflecting a 9% annual increase. However, finalized transaction prices are believed to be in the range of 90 million Tomans.
A Market in Paralysis: Stagnant Sales Amidst Cautious Interest
According to real estate intermediaries, market transactions remain sluggish. Despite this stagnation, there has been a noticeable uptick in public interest, with more potential buyers visiting real estate agencies and browsing property listings. These prospective buyers are gathering information, cautiously waiting for clearer market signals before committing to a purchase, effectively prolonging the market’s downturn.
Long-Term Stagnation or an Imminent Shift?
Expert analyses suggest the housing market could be facing a prolonged period of stagnation. This current downturn, which began in late spring, is predicted by some to extend through the autumn. If this trend continues, the market could experience sluggish transactions for up to 36 months. A comparative look at annual percentage changes highlights the unique position of the housing market.
- Housing: 9.4%
- Gold: 146%
- US Dollar: 74%
- Stock Market Index: 21%
The Experts Weigh In: 10 Views on Market Dynamics
A survey of housing market professionals reveals a complex picture of the current climate and future prospects:
Farshid Pourhajat, Secretary of the Mass Builders Association: “Construction costs have been volatile, which may impact new, unsold units in the future. Given the current stability, potential buyers with plans to purchase might find now a suitable time to enter the market.”
Yasser, Real Estate Consultant, Piroozi District: “We saw a 5-10% price increase this spring compared to last year, but the market entered a complete standstill following regional tensions. We haven’t seen price drops, however, as a 50% rise in construction costs makes that illogical. Only those in urgent need of money are selling at last year’s prices.”
Khosrow Bagherpour, CEO of Tehran Construction Cooperatives Union: “The housing market has lagged behind the growth in foreign exchange and gold. This gap will be compensated for sooner or later, making the present an optimal time for investment and consumption-based purchases.”
Hasan Mohtasham, Member of Tehran Mass Builders Association: “In North Tehran, there is investment demand, but investors are hesitant to risk their capital. In such conditions, some sellers are willing to offer discounts, but there are very few buyers.”
Pejman Jouz i, Head of the Construction Industry Association: “Such a severe downturn in the housing market is unprecedented in the last five decades. For years, we have spoken of six million units of pent-up demand, and plans for five million new constructions that have not materialized.”
Siamak Pirbabaei, Board Member of the Construction Industry Association: “The repercussions of unjust sanctions have affected the national economy, and this is not specific to the housing market. The reality is that fundamental steps in the macroeconomy are required to pull the housing sector out of stagnation.”
Saeed Lotfi, Board Member of the Real Estate Consultants Union: “Following recent international developments, we haven’t seen price increases, but people are inquiring more due to fluctuations in gold and foreign exchange. This increased interest has not translated into signed contracts. I believe if regional and political conditions stabilize in the second half of the year, the housing market may pick up.”
Farshid, Real Estate Consultant, District 10: “After the period of regional tension, prices in our area rose 10-15%. New units were 120 million Tomans per meter but have now dropped to around 100 million, with no buyers. We haven’t seen increased interest following other economic developments either. The housing market will not grow as long as the dollar, gold, and car markets are booming.”
Ashkan, Real Estate Consultant, Tehranpars District: “Housing prices had a speculative bubble which deflated after the tensions, but there wasn’t a major crash. Prices for valuable properties have held, while less desirable homes have seen some depreciation, with significant discounts only from sellers in dire need of cash.”
Mohammad Dabiri, Housing Economics Expert: “Due to the recession, no builder dares to start new projects. However, if measures such as inflation control, streamlining bureaucracy for builders, and allocating targeted loans are prioritized, the market stagnation can be broken.”
The consensus points to a market at a critical crossroads, balancing between persistent stagnation and a potential window of opportunity, heavily influenced by broader national economic strategies.