Title: Iran’s Subsidy Overhaul: A Strategic Shift from Cash to Price Control for November 2025
A Pivotal Moment for Social Welfare Policy
Following the initial rollout of the Electronic Coupon (KalaBarg) scheme, the Iranian government is undertaking a significant strategic review of its flagship subsidy program. While the program, a cornerstone of the current administration’s social policy, has been met with public acceptance, recent economic pressures and high inflation rates have prompted a serious re-evaluation of its payment mechanism. Government bodies and regulatory institutions are now actively exploring new models to better achieve the scheme’s primary objective: price stabilization for essential goods to support vulnerable segments of society.
The Genesis and Framework of the Electronic Coupon Plan
Introduced as a central pillar of the government’s economic support strategy, the Electronic Coupon plan was officially launched to shield household purchasing power from price fluctuations. Designed to replace or complement direct cash subsidies for lower-income deciles, the program ensures that state support is directly channeled into the purchase of essential commodities. The initial framework allocated credits based on household income brackets, with the lowest three deciles receiving a higher monthly per-person credit.
Navigating Economic Headwinds
The persistence of an inflationary climate, with official reports indicating rates surpassing key thresholds, has presented substantial challenges to the program’s initial model. This economic reality led to a dual outcome: a reduction in the real purchasing power of the fixed coupon value and the emergence of serious discussions within policymaking circles about a fundamental restructuring of the system.
A New Direction: Prioritizing Price Stabilization
In response to these challenges, a consensus is forming among the key decision-making bodies—the government, the Ministry of Welfare, and the Parliament. The core of this new approach is a decisive shift from merely increasing subsidy amounts to actively controlling the end price of goods for beneficiaries.
The Minister of Welfare has emphasized the necessity of this methodological change, outlining a model focused on securing a stable supply of goods at a predetermined, fixed price. This strategy requires sophisticated management of the supply chain to insulate the program from short-term market volatilities.
Echoing this commitment, the Government Spokesperson, Ms. Fatemeh Mahagerani, affirmed the administration’s dedication to maintaining this vital social support. She clarified that the government’s focus is firmly on controlling prices within the target market rather than simply injecting more liquidity, drawing inspiration from successful historical models of price stabilization.
Parliament’s Role and the Preferential Currency Mechanism
The Parliament has played a crucial role in shaping this new direction. Following extensive consultations with economic bodies, lawmakers have underscored the use of official state tools to manage production costs. A fundamental understanding has been reached with the executive branch, centering on the distribution of goods based on a preferential foreign exchange rate.
This mechanism is designed to guarantee a consistent supply of essential goods at a stable price. Even if open market prices fluctuate, subsidy recipients will receive their designated commodities based on this fixed, preferential rate, representing a form of price support that the government commits to compensating within the supply chain.
The Path Forward for November 2025 Payments
Despite complex financial and operational considerations, the immediate future of the program is clear. The Government Spokesperson has definitively announced that funding for the upcoming payment cycle has been secured and that disbursements to the seven eligible income deciles will continue.
The primary evolution for the November 2025 phase will be this strategic pivot towards price control, likely implemented through authorizing the supply chain to procure goods at the preferential exchange rate. While the continuity of payments is assured, the final technical details to ensure the seamless execution of this new price-stabilization model are being finalized.
In summary, beneficiaries can expect to receive their Electronic Coupon subsidies, with the program’s real value increasingly guaranteed through stable prices for essential items, marking a sophisticated evolution in Iran’s social safety net strategy.