Rewritten Title: Demographer Analyzes Trends in Iran’s Married Population and Divorce Rates
Article:
A Demographic Deep Dive
A leading Iranian demographer, Shahla Kazemipour, has provided a detailed analysis of the country’s evolving marital landscape, offering a new perspective on the statistics surrounding marriage and divorce. By examining long-term population data, she presents a broader context for understanding these social trends.
A Growing Population of Married Women
Kazemipour highlighted a significant demographic shift: the number of married women in Iran has seen a steady and substantial increase over the past two decades. She presented figures showing a rise from approximately 16 million married women in 2006 to 24 million in recent years.
“With the increase in the number of married women, it is natural that the number of divorces also rises,” Kazemipour stated, explaining that the population “exposed to the risk” of divorce has grown correspondingly.
Changing Quality and Duration of Marriage
The expert emphasized that the nature of marriage itself has transformed. She pointed to Iran’s increased life expectancy, which has risen from about 60 years to roughly 76 years.
“Fifty years ago, a couple might live together for 30 years after marriage,” Kazemipour explained. “Now, with a longer life span, the duration of marriage has also increased. Therefore, the quality and experience of being married for these 24 million women is different from the past.”
She further clarified that in previous eras, the death of a spouse was a more common end to a marriage. Today, with longer marital lifespans, a different set of dynamics, including the potential for divorce, comes into play over the extended period.
Contextualizing the Marriage-to-Divorce Ratio
Addressing common public concerns over statistics that suggest a high ratio of divorces to marriages, Kazemipour labeled such comparisons as “unscientific.” She argued that these figures are often misinterpreted.
“Marriages occur within one segment of the population, while divorces occur within another, often larger and older, segment,” she elaborated. “The population of marriageable age is currently decreasing, while the population exposed to divorce is increasing. It is natural, therefore, for the ratio between the two numbers to become closer.”
Concluding her analysis, the demographer suggested that the closing gap between the number of marriages and divorces is a demographic inevitability given these population structures and does not warrant the level of alarm it sometimes generates.