Global Rice Prices Plummet as India’s Record Harvest Reshapes Market Dynamics
A recent analysis by Dr. Alisher Mirzabayev, a senior scientist at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), and Jeremy Zuewinger, CEO of Rice Trader, reveals a significant shift in the global rice market, driven primarily by India’s agricultural output and policy decisions.
Record Stocks and Harvest in India
The analysis indicates that India’s state rice reserves reached a substantial 37.9 million tons by August. This surge is attributed to an unprecedented harvest and government procurement at the Minimum Support Price (MSP). With new harvest yields expected to exceed domestic consumption by approximately 30 million tons, India is experiencing a significant supply surplus with wide-reaching international implications.
India’s Return as a Market Leader
Following a series of export restrictions from 2022 to 2023, India lifted its last ban on rice exports in March of this year. This pivotal move has dramatically increased the supply of Indian rice to the global market. Forecasts now predict India’s exports for the current calendar year will reach about 23.5 million tons. By the end of August 2025, India alone had exported over 14.7 million tons, surpassing the 4.7 million tons from Thailand and 6 million tons from Vietnam in the same period. This resurgence has been the key driver behind a notable decrease in global rice prices.
Global Price Impact and Market Effects
In 2025, global rice prices have fallen to their lowest point in several years, with India re-establishing itself as the primary price setter. This trend has created a dual impact:
- Benefit for Importers: Major importing nations, particularly in Africa and Asia, are benefiting from more affordable rice, which is helping to reduce their overall food import costs.
- Challenge for Competitors: Competing exporters are witnessing a erosion of their competitive standing in the market. Furthermore, the price drop has put pressure on farmer incomes across many Asian countries.
A Well-Supplied Global Market
The research suggests that India’s massive stocks, combined with limited domestic storage capacity and the incoming new harvest, will continue to exert downward pressure on international prices. On a global scale, the rice supply is abundant. The report concludes that prices are expected to remain low through 2026 barring any major unforeseen shocks to the market.
This assessment is supported by data from Rice News Today, which shows the global rice stock-to-consumption ratio has now surpassed 34%, one of the highest levels recorded for this time of year and a clear indicator of a well-supplied market. With global production at a record high of approximately 541 million tons for 2024-2025 and reserves increasing, the market is described as having a substantial buffer.
Reduced Demand from Major Importers
Adding to the trend of lower prices, large importers like the Philippines and Indonesia have scaled back their purchasing after building up reserves in previous periods to protect their domestic producers. This weakened demand is identified as a key factor that will prevent any significant price increases in the short term.