Rewritten Title: Economic Analyst Examines Currency Pressures and Policy Responses
Article:
An Economist’s Critical Forecast
Economic analyst Homan Zanganeh has provided a critical forecast on currency trends, linking domestic market pressures to a complex interplay of global and regional factors. He identifies a pattern of disruptive economic competition since 2017 as a primary contributor to current challenges, which has, unfortunately, led to a decline in output in some industries, with production reportedly falling by approximately 60 percent since the start of the current year.
Regional Dynamics and Policy Impacts
Zanganeh, in his analysis, stated that the increase in domestic currency prices is influenced by regional conditions and political crises. He pointed to the absence of long-term central bank policies and certain premature interventions—such as management of the stock market or the fifth phase of coin sales—as factors that have added tension to the market and directly impacted the dollar’s price. While the Central Bank has attempted to modulate its policies through gold purchases, Zanganeh noted that International Monetary Fund data suggests real gold acquisitions have decreased, with the growth in reserve value being more a result of rising prices than an increase in purchase volume.
Investor Behavior and Market Influences
The analyst also highlighted other factors driving the price of gold, including a 30 percent rise in interest rates and stock market fluctuations, which have driven investors toward safe-haven assets like foreign currency or gold. Furthermore, he pointed to the influence of volatile capital flows and speculative activities, including hedge funds and ETFs, which have undertaken unprecedented purchasing volumes in recent months, significantly affecting the gold market.
December Outlook and Policy Imperative
Looking ahead, Zanganeh offered a specific forecast: while global gold prices may see a correction after their recent $400 surge, the domestic price of the US dollar is expected to continue its upward trend. He projected it would break past the 113,000 Tomans level and reach approximately 125,000 to 130,000 Tomans. From a governmental perspective, this increase can be viewed positively for a portion of state revenues and expenditures linked to the dollar. However, for the general public, it raises serious concerns about increasing inflation and the accumulation of debts. Consequently, Zanganeh emphasized that policies aimed at reducing dependency on foreign currency and “de-dollarizing” the economy must be prioritized.