Yemen’s Fragile Equilibrium: Regional Power Plays Cloud Peace Prospects
Yemen’s protracted conflict has settled into a delicate state, characterized by neither full-scale war nor enduring peace, according to recent regional assessments, particularly from the Persian Gulf. While direct confrontations have diminished in key areas like Sana’a, controlled by Ansarullah-aligned forces, and Aden, under the Presidential Leadership Council, the internal dynamics of the conflict have grown more intricate due to intensifying intra-coalition rivalries between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Riyadh is primarily focused on achieving a dignified exit from the Yemeni conflict and securing its southern borders through potential agreements with Ansarullah. Abu Dhabi, however, pursues a distinct strategy, demonstrating a desire to expand its influence within Yemen.
### Divergent Strategies in the South
The core of the Riyadh-Abu Dhabi dispute centers on strategic Yemeni ports and archipelagos, including Socotra and Mayun, alongside support for opposing proxy forces. The UAE’s backing of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) effectively aims to establish an independent front in southern Yemen, thereby solidifying its maritime influence in the contested waters of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. This strategy directly conflicts with Saudi Arabia’s broader policy of preserving Yemen’s unity under a central government. This strategic divergence has, in recent months, weakened anti-Ansarullah fronts and complicated the peace process, transforming it from a national reconciliation effort into a complex negotiation between former allies within the Persian Gulf.
### Qatar’s Ascendant Diplomatic Role
Relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, though ostensibly re-established with the Al-Ula declaration in 2021, appear to be a tactical truce rather than a strategic alliance. The initial diplomatic rift has evolved, with differences extending beyond border disputes and support for certain movements to encompass a fierce competition in energy economics, international mediation, and sports diplomacy. Analysts suggest Qatar’s role as a leading mediator in sensitive regional files is a key point of contention. Leveraging its extensive diplomatic network and relationships with diverse regional actors, including Iran, Qatar has solidified its position as a crucial partner for Western powers in the region. For Riyadh, whose Vision 2030 aims for absolute leadership of the Arab and Islamic world, Doha’s independent diplomatic pursuits are viewed as an unwelcome parallel. While Saudi Arabia seeks to be the central hub for regional diplomatic endeavors, Qatar, backed by its vast gas wealth and media powerhouse Al Jazeera, continues to chart its own course.
### Deepening Economic Rivalries
The competition extends significantly into the energy sector. Saudi Arabia endeavors to manage oil prices within OPEC+ to fund its ambitious mega-projects, while the UAE, through substantial investments in natural gas, seeks to capture a larger share of the European and Asian energy markets. Furthermore, a race to attract foreign investment and host major global events highlights another layer of contention. Riyadh, emulating past successes, is investing billions to transform itself into a regional tourism and sports hub. This strategic contest, while seemingly a friendly rivalry, underscores Abu Dhabi’s clear intent to not remain in the shadow of its larger neighbor, Saudi Arabia.
### Intra-Alliance Tensions Erupt
Saudi Arabia’s unilateral actions have included efforts to assert control over the political and security structures in southern Yemen and diminish the role of allies linked to Abu Dhabi. Riyadh considers any activity in Yemen that it deems hostile as a direct threat to its national security. The Yemen file is now directly managed by Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman. According to recent reports, Saudi Arabia’s plan involves two parallel axes: a political axis, which includes inviting tribal leaders and activists for “South-South dialogue” to form a unified Yemen with increased political and economic autonomy for southern provinces; and a military axis, establishing a supreme military committee under Saudi forces to bring all local formations and forces under a single command.
However, Riyadh accuses Abu Dhabi of attempting to undermine these efforts, investing in local allies, and fostering disorder in southern Yemen. Media exchanges have intensified, with Saudi media and commentators accusing Abu Dhabi of orchestrating chaos, supporting armed groups, and planning protests in Aden to disrupt the South-South dialogue. Adding to recent tensions, Abu Dhabi has reportedly detained some members of the STC delegation in Riyadh, prompting threats from Saudi Arabia to protect its national security interests without compromise.
